Its the day that none of us have been waiting for - the announcement of the names that will be on the ballot for the 2010 MLB Hall of Fame. Unlike last year, when Rickey Henderson was an obvious choice and Jim Rice was expected to get in on his 15th and final try, this year its a tougher decision for the writers.
Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven may pick up some votes this year and sneak in, as each received over 60% of the vote last year (they need 75%). I've never been able to understand why a writer would not vote for a player in his 8th season on the ballot, and then all of a sudden reevaluate in his 9th year, but it always seems to happen.
The more interesting debate will be which eligible newcomers deserve to be in. Honorable mentions to Mark McLemore, Dave Burba, Andy Ashby and Fernando Vina, who were all left off the ballot but were eligible. Here's my rankings of the 15 ballot newbies.
15. David Segui. His recent admission that he used steroids will almost certainly anger writers and cause him to be unlikely to receive any votes at all. But, even without that admission, Segui never won any awards and never appeared in the postseason. By the end of his career he was a journeyman. Props for hitting .334 in 2000 with Texas and Cleveland, but not even close to hall worthy.
14. Shane Reynolds. Reynolds was a one-time all star who had a career year at 19-8 with a 3.51 ERA in 1998. But Reynolds ERA jumped in his last few years with the Astros, and he didn't do anything particularly special in his 5 postseason starts (1-3, 4.18 ERA).
13. Todd Zeile. Very solid career numbers for Zeile, but 11 teams in 16 years tells you something about a player - that he was never a true superstar. He never hit over .300 and only had 100 RBI's once (1993).
12. Mike Jackson. A durable saves master, Jackson is 77th all-time in saves, and compiled 40 saves in 1999. He also led the league in appearances with the Giants in 1993, and pitched well with the Indians in the 1997 World Series. A career 3.42 ERA is nothing to laugh at, but Jackson would need more stats to back up his candidacy.
11. Ray Lankford. Still not a hall-of-famer, but put up some impressive speed/power numbers. His 238 HR's and 258 SB's put him in the top 50 All-Time in the speed/power number combination. Lankford also led the league with 15 triples as a rookie, and was a one-time all-star.
10. Eric Karros. The 1992 NL rookie-of-the-year churned out 284 career bombs, and earned a Silver Slugger in 1995, while finishing 5th in MVP voting. Karros had more than 30 HRs and 100 RBIs for 5 out of six years in the mid to late 90's.
9. Kevin Appier. Appier had a 2.53 ERA in 1993, and pitched 16 solid seasons in the bigs. As an A's fan, I was excited to pick him up in 1999, but he turned out to be a disappointment for the A's. He picked up a World Series ring in 2002 with the Angels, despite turned in a dismal 11.37 ERA in two starts in the series against the Giants.
8. Ellis Burks. Now we are getting into some serious consideration. Burks appeared in two all-star games, has a Gold Glove, 2 Silver Sluggers, and in 1996 he hit .344 and led the league in Runs, Slugging Percentage and Total Bases. A roided Ken Caminiti won the NL MVP that year, but Burks was close. I've heard some analysts say Burks, Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds formed one of the most formidable 3-4-5 combos in history when they teamed up in 1999/2000.
7. Robin Ventura. Ventura edges out Burks for style points. He was also a two-time all-star, but had 6 Gold Gloves and was a playoff hero with the 2000 Mets. Ventura was an excellent defensive player at the hot corner, and also could hit for power.
6. Pat Hentgen. The resume speaks for itself. You may have forgotten about this guy, but he was a three-time all-star, won the Cy Young award in 1996 (20-10 3.22 ERA, 10 CGs, 3 shutouts). He also won a game in the 1993 World Series with the 'Jays and picked up a ring.
5. Andres Galarraga. I would expect "The Big Cat" to get quite a few votes because everyone loved this guy. He had a great passion for the game and everyone related to him after his heart problems. Still 5 all-star appearances and 399 career HRs are enough to warrant some consideration. In the end, I don't think he gets in, but almost.
4. Fred McGriff. The Crime Dog! One of my favorite players growing up, I would vote for him in a heartbeat. Loved his swing, and his 493 homers was top 25 all-time when he retired. Interesting question: have two hall-of-famers ever been traded for one another? If McGriff and Roberto Alomar both make it, they could be the first.
3. Edgar Martinez. I would vote for him. Martinez is an interesting case because while has plenty of stats to back up his case, he also was a DH and many voters could count that against him. But just look at all the Pro's: Amazing playoff double in 1995 to send Seattle to the ALCS. Spent his whole 18 year career with one team. Six time all-star, 5 time silver slugger, and a career batting average of .312. I think he gets in eventually if not this season.
2. Barry Larkin. Another guy who played his whole career with one squad, he'll always be a career Cincinnati Red. Larkin was a 12 time all-star, the 1995 NL MVP, a three-time Gold Glove winner and a nine-time Silver Slugger. Larkin was the 2nd best shortstop of the 1990's in my opinion, behind only Cal Ripken. If you play the comparision game with current HOFers, I think Larkin is a clear fit. Was Larkin a better hitter than Ozzie Smith? Yes.
1. Roberto Alomar. If you forget about his spitting incident with an umpire, Alomar is a clear hall of famer. 12 All-Star games, one All-Star game MVP, 10 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers, and was a .300 career hitter. To boot, he won 2 World Series championships with the Blue Jays, and hit .313 in 58 career playoff games. If that's not enough to convince you, his most similar comparison on baseballreference.com is Derek Jeter.
My predictions: Alomar and Larkin make it this year, along with Andre Dawson. Edgar Martinez will be close but will have to pick up a little more support. McGriff will be around the 25% range , and Galarraga, Hentgen, Ventura and Burks will all pick up a few votes to be close to the 5% needed to stay on the ballot.
1. Roberto Alomar. If you forget about his spitting incident with an umpire, Alomar is a clear hall of famer. 12 All-Star games, one All-Star game MVP, 10 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers, and was a .300 career hitter. To boot, he won 2 World Series championships with the Blue Jays, and hit .313 in 58 career playoff games. If that's not enough to convince you, his most similar comparison on baseballreference.com is Derek Jeter.
My predictions: Alomar and Larkin make it this year, along with Andre Dawson. Edgar Martinez will be close but will have to pick up a little more support. McGriff will be around the 25% range , and Galarraga, Hentgen, Ventura and Burks will all pick up a few votes to be close to the 5% needed to stay on the ballot.
